Everywhere you go, you’ll find a lesson or an anecdote about risk.

Well, the folksy football (soccer) coach for the Richmond Greyhounds, Ted Lasso, is no exception.

While rewatching an episode of one of the most celebrated TV comedies in recent memory, it got me thinking about how business owners- and people in general – assess the risk and consequences of their constant decision making.

There’s a pivotal scene where the titular character, Ted, challenges Rupert – part owner of Richmond and toxic ex-husband to the show’s heroine football club owner, Rebecca – to a game of darts. What starts as a simple bar game quickly transforms into a profound lesson about the importance of research and strategy, particularly in the face of uncertainty.

As the match unfolds, Ted appears to be the underdog, seemingly outmatched by Rupert’s confident swagger. The stakes are high – Rupert wagers £10,000 on the game. Ted counters with this: if Rupert wins he gets to pick the line up of the team for the remainder of the season. If Ted wins, Rupert comes nowhere near the owners’ box. Rupert agrees.

But Ted’s unexpected skill with the darts reveals a hidden depth of experience, leading him to a decisive victory. This win is far from a lucky break; it’s a calculated outcome stemming from Ted’s experience of playing darts with his father every week until his father passed away.

This scene serves as a sharp metaphor for decision-making in real life. Too often, people base their choices on assumptions and incomplete information, much like Rupert did when he underestimated Ted. This kind of shortsightedness can lead to poor decisions and missed opportunities.

Ted’s triumph in the game underscores the critical value of understanding all possible outcomes before making a decision. By being aware of his own strengths and weaknesses and developing a clear strategy, Ted turned what seemed like a risky gamble into a well-managed challenge.

There is plenty of literature available to support Ted’s strategy – and the view that understanding – or misunderstanding – risk can lead to vastly different outcomes.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept of a “black swan” event—unpredictable occurrences with potentially severe consequences – is particularly accurate. In the context of the dart game, Ted’s unexpected proficiency was a black swan event for Rupert. That is, Rupert miscalculated the true risk by being ignorant to the fact he didn’t know Ted’s background.

An important point here to remember is this: while this was a “black swan” event for Rupert, it was no such thing for Ted. This highlights the imperative to prepare for the unexpected by researching and considering all potential outcomes, no matter how unlikely they might seem.

It may be useful to always remember one thing: “Be curious, not judgemental”.